Methodology
The two layers
The Cooked Index is a data-informed editorial product, not a calculation engine. There are two layers:
- Layer A — Indicators. Real macro and labor data, auto-fetched and shown alongside each pillar. These are the public-facing receipts.
- Layer B — Scoring. Each week, the editor reviews the indicator dashboard and assigns each pillar a score 0–100 plus a paragraph of commentary. The composite is the simple average.
The data does not determine the score. The editor does. The data is the evidence the editor cites.
The five pillars
How hard is it for normal people to afford normal life?
- · Groceries (CPI Food at Home)
- · Healthcare (CPI Medical Care)
- · Rent (CPI Shelter)
- · Home price / income ratio
- · Gas (US retail price)
- · 10Y Treasury yield
Financial repression. Central banks tolerating elevated inflation to inflate down government debt — with renters, first-time buyers, and wage earners absorbing the cost. Napier's playbook.
Are normal people drowning in debt — and is the government drowning too?
- · Consumer debt service ratio
- · Credit card delinquency rate
- · Personal savings rate
- · Student loan debt
- · Federal debt-to-GDP
- · Interest expense as % of federal outlays
- · Real interest rate vs. nominal GDP growth (r − g)
Dalio's long debt cycle. Both household and sovereign balance sheets are working through the same compression. When the federal government and your credit card are competing for the same dollars, something gives.
Can you actually build a life?
- · Homeownership rate (25–34)
- · Monthly layoffs & discharges (JOLTS)
- · Youth unemployment (20–24)
- · Job openings trend (YoY)
- · AmICooked panic readings (forthcoming)
AI labor disruption meets the generational handover. The cohort that came of age post-2008 is hitting their wealth-building years right as AI enters the white-collar economy. Strauss-Howe Fourth Turning texture, with a technological accelerant.
Are we connected, sane, and functioning as a society?
- · Consumer sentiment (Michigan)
- · Fertility rate
- · Case-Shiller home price index
- · Trust in institutions (Gallup)
Strauss-Howe Fourth Turning. We're in the Crisis stage of the saeculum — institutional trust collapsing, social atomization peaking, the conditions in which a new civic generation typically forms.
Is the system working for regular people, or just the top?
- · Sentiment vs. S&P 500 gap
- · S&P 500 level
- · Gold price
- · Top 1% wealth share
- · Bottom 50% wealth share
Wealth concentration as a feature of late-stage debt cycles. When real wages stagnate and asset prices inflate, holders win and earners lose. Gold rips when the smart money stops believing the official story.
The bands
Four bands, applied consistently to every pillar and to the composite.
Things are working as intended. Most people are fine. Whatever this pillar measures, the system is delivering.
Getting tight. The squeeze is real but not breaking. People notice; people adjust. Functional.
Most people are running out of road. Normal milestones take two incomes, side hustles, or both. Something is structurally off.
The math doesn't work. Whatever this pillar measures, it's failing for most people. Something has to give.
The composite
Equal weights in v0.1. Composite = simple average of the five editor-assigned pillar scores, rounded to the nearest integer for display. The verdict band is whichever band the composite lands in.
Version history
- v0.1 — current. Five pillars. Equal weights. Four bands. Editorial scoring with indicator evidence.
What this is not
Not a forecast. Not a recession probability. Not investment advice. Not falsifiable in a tight statistical sense, because cooked is a judgment, not a regression target.
It is a transparent, explainable, weekly snapshot of five things we think matter. If you think a pillar is wrong, weighted wrong, or missing entirely — write in. The point is to argue.